How Research and Inferential Statistics Might be Used in Criminal Justice Professions (Forensic Science)

Introduction

Research and inferential statistics serve an integral part in most criminal justice
professions. Research and inferential methods lay the framework for analyzing and interpreting
data collected from victims, suspects, and crime scenes. From tracking suspects and making
arrests to presenting evidence in the courtroom to identifying future crime trends, research and
inferential statistics form the fabric of the criminal justice system. However, it is important to
note that the application or research and inferential statistics tools varies widely from one
criminal justice profession to another. In this summative paper, I will describe my ideal job in
criminal justice (forensic science), explain how I might leverage published research statistics to
assist in solving problems and making decisions in forensic science, provide examples of how I
might leverage published criminal justice research in the field, and differentiate between
correlation and causation in forensic science. I will also identify likely applications of correlation
and regression within forensic science research or management and describe how methods
involving prediction, correlation, and association (as in regression) assist form policy and
operational decisions for most effective law enforcement or criminal justice practices.

Description of the Ideal Job in Criminal Justice

My ideal job in criminal justice is forensic science. The role of a forensic scientists
includes applying scientific techniques and principles to investigate physical and circumstantial
evidence during crime investigations. My responsibilities typically include collecting and
analyzing physical evidence (fibers, hairs, DNA, and fingerprints) from crime scenes,
performing laboratory tests (DNA tests, serology, spectroscopy, and chromatography) to analyze

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the evidence collected, interpreting results and filing reports, providing expert testimonies in
courts using evidence collected from forensic investigations, and many other roles that can assist
in solving criminal cases (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, n.d.).
How I might Use Published Research Statistics to Assist in Solving Problems and Making

Decisions

As a forensic scientist, public research statistics can offer critical cliches for making
informed decisions and solving problems related to criminal investigations and forensic science.
For example, research findings can assist in laying the “baseline” for different types of evidence.
For instance, statistical findings might offer data on the frequency of certain DNA markers in
specific populations; this can assist in matching a suspect’s DNA and the DNA material
collected in a crime scene, such as a homicide. This process is called “DNA typing” and plays an
integral role in interpreting DNA evidence (Butler, 2023).
Research findings can also play a central role in identifying trends in crime scene data,
ultimately informing investigations. For example, research might demonstrate that specific
crimes have a higher propensity of occurring at certain seasons of the year or times of the day or
in specific locations; these clues can assist forensic scientists save resources, reduce time
wastage, focus their efforts, and develop appropriate strategies for solving and preventing
crimes. Forensic scientists can also leverage published research statistics to evaluate hypotheses
and make predictions related to crime investigations. Most importantly, research statistics can
assist forensic scientists assess the reliability and validity of different types evidence, including
eyewitness testimonies, DNA, and fingerprints. This can further assist investigators establish the
strength of their case and determine gaps or areas of weakness often requiring additional
evidence.

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Additionally, research statistics in forensic science can assist in evaluating the accuracy
and validity of techniques used in forensic analysis, such as ballistics testing and blood spatter
analysis. This data can provide valuable insights into the reliability of the evidence retrieved
using these methods. Finally, research statistics can assist forensic scientists in making informed
policy decisions (such as the application of specific forensic methods) that are based on
empirical data rather, not subjective or anecdotal accounts.

Examples on How to Use Published Criminal Justice Research
The following are two examples showing how I can use published criminal justice
research in forensic investigations. Firstly, suppose I am a forensic DNA analyst trying to solve a
cold case homicide and the DNA profile retrieved from the victim’s house (crime scene) does
not match any profiles in the FBI’s NDIS (National DNA Index System). However, after
identifying a suspect using circumstantial evidence, I might use published criminal justice
statistics to strengthen my case by confirming the suspect’s DNA and the DNA from the crime
scene match. Statistical methods like “likelihood ratio” can fundamentally assist in calculating
the probability of the observed DNA profile being from the suspect (Aitken et al., 2018). This
quantitative measure can assist me present more admissible evidence in the court.
Secondly, I can use published criminal justice research to guide an analysis involving
blood spatter evidence collected from a drive-by shooting. I can use evidence from research to
reconstruct the sequence of events leading to the victim’s death. For instance, I can apply
evidence on physics of blood spatter to establish the velocity and direction of blood droplets; this
can assist in establishing the locations and positions of the perpetrator and victim (Singh, Gupta,
& Rathi, 2021).

Differences Between Correlation and Causation

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Causation and correlation are two closely related but completely distinct concepts,
although they are both important in forensic science. Correlation is a statistical relationship
between two factors or variables, whereby a change in one causes a change in the other. Simply
put, two variables are said to be correlated when they change together in a more predictable
manner. For example,

Differentiate between correlation and causation in a way that connects to your ideal job.
Potential Applications of Correlation and Regression within the Management/Research for

the Selected Criminal Justice Field

Identify potential applications of correlation and regression within management or research for your
chosen criminal justice field.
How Techniques Involving Association, Correlation, and Prediction (as in Regression)

Assist in Forming Policy and Operational Decisions

Describe how techniques involving association, correlation, and prediction (as in regression) help
form policy and operational decisions for more effective criminal justice practices.

Conclusion

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References

Aitken, C., et al. (2018). Commentary: Likelihood ratio as weight of forensic evidence: A closer
look. Frontiers in Genetics, 9. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2018.00224
Butler, J. M. (2023). Recent advances in forensic biology and forensic DNA typica: INTERPOL
review 2019-2022. Forensic Science International: Synergy, 6.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsisyn.2022.100311
Singh, P., Gupta, P., & Rathi, R. (2021). Blood pattern analysis – a review and new findings.
Egyptian Journal of Forensic Sciences, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41935-021-00224-
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US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Occupational outlook handbook: Forensic science
technicians. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/life-physical-and-social-science/forensic-science-
technicians.htm